1941: a short period of unstable peace in europe, Japan attacks USA
1942-1944: war rages at pacific, revolts at USSR, Ukraina declares independence
1945: Germanian diplomats endow peace at pacific, USSR decays
1946: the Germanian Empire invades the british isles, the UK is lost
I'm going to be honest and say that your events in the Pacific are not reasonable. The sheer industrial capacity of the US, combined with the intensity of the hatred for those who attack the US preclude anything other than the destruction of the Japanese Empire by 1947. There is no way that the US would have been willing to sign a peace treaty - it was always going to be Japan signing surrender documents. Even without a nuclear weapon, the US submarine campaign would have starved out the home islands. The US was fully capable of fielding a full 100 division army (and equipping it to the level that in other nations would have been considered motorized if not mechanized) and a two ocean navy (that never finished the FY44 build plan per history much less the nascent FY45 plan) at the same time. When forces from the rest of the Americas are brought into the fold (by economic force if needed) the numbers grow even higher, and all that much worse for any opponent. Even if the US doesn't develop an atomic bomb until 1947, the delivery vehicle (in the form of a B-29 or a B-36 class aircraft) is still also coming off the line by then, and you're back to a Fortress America that just can't be stopped by anyone.
If Germany is considered a hostile neutral, the US would be forced to keep forces in the Atlantic but the industrial might of the US forces a victory in the pacific - even if the carriers were lost at Pearl. Yes it could have been a long hard slog, but once the US got involved in the Pacific the outcome was set. Once the Pacific is relatively secured, US attention would turn east to the Atlantic basin, and there you end up with a possible rehash of the Cold War. I think in Europe you have underestimated the costs of unifying the European industrial base*.
If we're going to look even earlier, the US deployed roughly 2 million troops out of a population of 90ish million. The total US losses were about 0.13% of the US population - or one tenth of the total population loss suffered by the rest of the Entente powers. The US had another 3+ million troops still in the US, and even with the 1918 flu outbreak, could have probably supported another million troops in Europe.
Think about that - one million fresh troops with the industrial capacity to back them up. You get it correct that for the Germans to not-lose they have to push the US out of the war, but I'm doubtful that they could.
*Look at the economic costs for the reunification of Germany post 1989, and ratchet that up to 11 to get the minimum base line - for there you had only one language and a common history - something that doesn't exist outside of Germany.
I can buy a not-Nazi aggressive Germany in the late 1940s, but if it exists, the cold war is going to be with the US not with Japan. Japan gets, at best, to be a third, minor player in such a cold war if they don't attack the US. If they do attack the US, then best case is a US vassal state, worst case is Halsey's prediction comes true ("Before we're through with them, the Japanese language will be spoken only in hell").