Time for more fill-in about the AU, and what I suggest as deviations from real history.
The powered aerostat that Mister Dyer was supposed to have built is a lot like the Samuel Langley powered gliders. The myths and legends get in the way of any objective facts that can be proved. All I can cite with certainty is that the man lived and he claimed to have made a compound balloon and wing flying machine that carried a man aloft.
I don't believe it for a second.
On the other hand, there are reliable printed historical sources for the Samuel Langley series of powered unmanned gliders. There are good eyewitness newspaper accounts, including those from Theodore Roosevelt, that confirm sub-scale steam engine powered models actually flew straight and level for distances that proved that these heavier than air devices lifted under power.
From Rudyard Kipling...
Through Roosevelt I met Professor Langley of the Smithsonian, an old man who had designed a model aeroplane driven—for petrol had not yet arrived—by a miniature flash-boiler engine, a marvel of delicate craftsmanship. It flew on trial over two hundred yards, and drowned itself in the waters of the Potomac, which was cause of great mirth and humour to the Press of his country. Langley took it coolly enough and said to me that, though he would never live till then, I should see the aeroplane established.
Rudyard Kipling, Something of Myself: for my friends known and unknown, London: MacMillan and Co., 1951 (first published 1937). p. 123
What defeated Langley (and almost anyone else who tried until the Wrights solved the problem) was three axis stability in flight. That means the secret to manned flight that Orville and Wilbur cracked was not the lift problem, because they were not the only ones who solved the chord camber problem quickly. Otto Lilienthal was on that track and it was his work, the Wrights refined.
The problem was how to recover and point the aircraft in a shifting wind so that the nose and hence the wing would not rise or drop into a stall and fall out of lift, nor let the nose and wing side-slip and skid again into a fall out of lift condition or roll around the long axis with attendant crash. This was what killed Lilienthal.
Langley in his experiments was aware of the roll and the pitch problems, but like so many others before him he did not solve for yaw. he thought that once pitch and roll were handled he could assume yaw would take care of itself. It was lift which he thought was the great barrier. I have to admit, he did not even solve the chord/camber problem properly either, even though his symmetrical chord and 8 degree level camber wing prototypes actually flew and that was what he duplicated for his manned prototype.
Why did they fly and the manned type did not?
Put enough thrust into it and even a brick will fly.
Wait fifteen years and add Glenn Curtiss and you get a flying machine that works;
WHY?
Glenn Curtisss added flaps, elevons, a
combined 2-d tail control to keep the nose from pitching and yawing. And he added power.
He also adjusted wing chord and camber to generate a true vacuum effect to produce lift.
Clever reverse engineer was Glenn Curtiss. He devined all of those secrets from just a few glimpses of the Wright Flyer in operation. If he was not such a crook, he would have gone down in history as a greater contributor to the science of aviation than even the great Frenchman Louis Bleriot.
But he was a crook who spent most of his time leading up to WW I trying to break the Wright patents.
What does this have to do with the AU?
The thing it has to do with the AU is that three Americans started on the airplane. Langley went at it first, from 1887 onward.
The Wrights started their hunt for three axis control possibly as early as 1892. Curtiss, the huckster, started around 1905 when he discovered the Wright Flyer's secrets by observation.
It doesn't take an aeronautical engineer to know that Charles Manley's 74 kWatt engine was powerful enough to lift the Aerodrome. What was needed was the Wright 3 axis control. That would not be available until 1903. Could it have arrived a decade earlier?
Maybe if Orville and Wilbur had been more trusting, if Samuel Langley had been less obstinate and Glenn Curtiss had not been such a crook. Lot of ifs there to overcome.
Let's see if Alexander Graham Bell and Theodore Roosevelt can overcome them.