I agree it's definitely more of a provocation than anything else. But it was definitely intended to be a simulated attack. Not just a flyby.
I don't know what differentiates a simulated attack from an unauthorized flyby, except if there are targeting EM signals from the aircraft. I understand how both are against the rules in the first place, but the video does not show explicit aggressive intent, unless I'm missing something. Again, I'm not excusing anything here, the action of doing a close flyby with no comms like that is aggressive and provocative in and of itself, but talking unequivocally of "simulated attack" is taking some assumptions already.
A similar attack is actually portrayed in The Sum of all Fears in which a few Fencers delivered guided missiles at close range in an attack of an American CVN. I believe the tactic comes from the Russian Air Forces contention that over the horizon ranged weapons are overly susceptible to ECM and EW and thus the planes deliver a close up strike, though that seems counter-productive since it brings the manned aircraft closer to the guided missile vessel in the process.
Couple of elements here:
- The Su-24 is not just a missile truck but is well-equipped for precision attack with dumb weapons, as has been demonstrated (except maybe the "precision" part) in Syria
- I wouldn't put it past the AVMF to keep training for ship attack with dumb weapons even now.
- Your target ship can have all the air defense in the world and still get sunk if caught unawares (see the INS Hanit in the 2006 Lebanon conflict).
- Even if you're training for attack with stand-off weapons, how do you validate the pass on the target without visual contact?
- And as long as you're in the air, why not practice a strafing run as well?
- This all assumes that we're looking at a simulated attack for training/practice purposes, as opposed to pure chest-banging showing off, in which case you
want to be seen.
I would have been more impressed if they had used Su-34's.
Also, the US intel would have been more interested
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